Oct 25 AI Natl Security Memo, AZ chips, IMF reform, Surprising link between success & contentment

Ralph Perrine -

🎧 Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!

Note: this edition did not publish as scheduled due to a technical issue, which we believe has been resolved. Apologies for the late delivery.

In this Edition of S3T:

  • 🌍 Mixed global outlook: US shows strength, but China's economic struggles impact global growth and oil prices.
  • 💰 Inflation concerns: 10-year Treasury yields rise as investors anticipate future inflation, possibly tied to policy changes.
  • 📉 Global debt crisis: Calls for IMF reform amid growing global debt, led by key economists.
  • 🏭 Arizona chipmakers excel: TSMC’s Arizona plant surpasses Taiwan's chip production quality, producing for Apple.
  • 🤖 AI in national security: White House issues guidelines to manage military AI risks, amid US-China AI competition.
  • 🚑 AI in healthcare: Infinitus.AI secures funding to streamline insurance processes between healthcare providers and payers.
  • 😊 Contentment fuels success: True success comes from steady progress, alertness, and learning with a mindset of contentment, not restless discontent.

Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.

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Mixed Economic Outlooks - US vs World

A mixed picture again this week, with strong numbers from the US, and deteriorating conditions elsewhere and some concerns about the future. Highlights from Deloitte's global economic update:

  • China's economic weakness continues to weigh on the global economic outlook, impacting oil prices most recently.
  • 10 year Treasury yields are back up, with the breakeven rate up sharply. Some believe this is due to investors expecting higher inflation in coming years.

The prospect of higher inflation is worrisome, likely tied to the odds of a 2nd Trump administration with more inflationary tariffs and tax policies, as noted by this group of Nobel prize winning economists. (See also CNN story and Harris economic proposals).

Global context: Global debt is going to force the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into reform or irrelevance argues a former governor of the reserve bank of India, who now serves as chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. See also this call for IMF reform published 2023.

US Arizona Chipmakers Exceeds Taiwan Quality

Taiwan Semiconductor's initial production yields (the percentage of usable chips coming out of its fabrication process) at its new Arizona factory is exceeding the Taiwan based factories by 4% as reported by MacDailyNews and Bloomberg.

 “We now expect volume production of our first fab to start in the beginning of 2025, and are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona as from our fabs in Taiwan,” - Rick Cassidy President US Division of TSMC.

Quartz reported that TSMC's Arizona plant is making chips for Apple.

National Security Memo on AI

This week the White House issued the first National Security Memo on AI alongside a framework (PDF) guiding military use and management of risks posed by AI technologies. The guidance puts guardrails around the use of AI for military and government applications.

The story as reported by the South China Morning Post (based in Hong Kong) focuses on US-China competition in AI, specifically the desire to avoid a "strategic surprise."

Character.AI tragedy highlights need for AI product controls

A grief stricken family is suing Character.AI and Google over the death of their son. The teen committed suicide after becoming attached to a virtual character generated by the Character.AI platform. The case alleges that the Character.AI chatbot engaged in sensitive and suggestive content including suicide and sexual themes - and underscores the risks of publishing unmanaged chatbots.

AI as communication liaison between Payer and Provider

Health insurers can expect more calls from Infinitus.AI a new service that calls insurers on behalf of healthcare providers in hopes of streamlining Benefit verification, prior authorization and prescription follow ups. The startup just secured a Series C funding of $51.5M from A16Z and Memorial Hermann Health Systems. Important to understand liability provisions in contracts of this nature.

Click here to go to this weeks learning segment: Change Leadership Mindset: Contentment

Dive in and learn counterintuitive reasons why contentment is key to success, and how you can cultivate a contentment mindset. Success - being able to hit your goals successfully - becomes easier when you think, plan, work and learn with a mindset of contentment, NOT discontent.

Your Change Leadership Learning Segment for the week is taken from the S3T Change Leadership Learning Series, a unique 23 week leadership course. You have the option of following the group schedule, or working through the material at your own pace.

Noisemakers and Navigators: A note about this week's cover.

This week's cover is a DALL-E generated image (my prompt asked for 'the style of a polaroid photo') that depicts an analogy that helps me understand interesting contrast I've seen in American politics.

In my work I have the privilege of meeting amazing change leaders who are diligently working to understand and solve the urgent complicated issues of our time, across tech, finance, healthcare, government and other sectors. I also encounter others who are not as engaged but have rigid misinformed biases. The contrast between the two is striking.

I kept trying to think of an analogy to describe what I was seeing, and describe it in a way that would encourage people to be engaged, learning directly from navigating the challenges of our world, rather than parroting politically motivated narratives, memes and noise. I started thinking about a canyon with groups of people standing on the left and right rims of the canyon yelling insult and slogans at each other. Far below, a wild river full of rocky rapids rages through the canyon, and groups of brave souls in boats are paddling and struggling desperately to navigate the rapids. In this visual, we see two worlds: the voices on the rim of the canyon, shouting, debating, entrenched in their positions, and the ones down in the rapids, struggling to stay afloat amid raging waters.

The contrast captures our national political discourse: a divided crowd caught in the noise of oversimplification, apparently obvious to the group far below them, learning first hand what works and what doesn't work as they navigate the raging waters of messy real world problems.

Each of us has a choice:

  • Be part of the group is working desperately to navigate and solve the challenges of our world.
  • Remain far removed from the problems, locked in arguments with opponents, saying clueless things in loud emphatic ways.

Noisemaker or Navigator.