🦃Nov 22 -Bitcoin 99k, Layoffs, Morphing Wheels, Change Leadership Mindset & more

Happy Friday! Welcome to the S3T Weekly Newsletter: Your Guide to Navigating Economic Shifts and Emerging Tech Developments. Hope this finds you doing well, and hope you are all set for a relaxing Thanksgiving week!

🎧 Listen here or Listen on the S3T Podcast!

In this Edition of S3T:

• 📉 Economic Trends: October's leading indicators continue to decline, with the Fed signaling a slower pace for rate cuts. November may bring significant layoffs, including at Boeing.
• 📊 Inflation and Voter Behavior: Data suggests inflation disproportionately impacts poorer consumers, with rising costs of low-priced goods. Immigrant voters may have contributed to Trump’s recent win.
• 🏠 Bitcoin Boom: Bitcoin nears $100K, making non-inflationary assets more attractive. The cost of a home in Bitcoin has plummeted, signaling a shift in value dynamics.
• 🏥 Healthcare Changes: Concerns grow over deregulation under the new administration, which could create volatility in the healthcare sector. The US ranks lowest among high-income nations in healthcare quality.
• ⚖️ AI Legal Challenge: OpenAI faces a defamation lawsuit as a judge denies its motion to dismiss. The case continues, highlighting legal questions around generative AI.
• 🚀 Crypto and FinTech: Gary Gensler's resignation as SEC Chair fuels optimism for crypto innovation. FinTech may be reshaped by stablecoins, DeFi, and token economies.
• 🧑‍🏫 Education & Innovation: OpenAI launches a free course for teachers using ChatGPT. A Korean institute develops a morphing wheel enabling wheelchairs to climb stairs.
• 🏆 Change Leadership Recap: Celebrating the completion of Change Leadership 101, focusing on mindset essentials like contentment, resilience, and abundance. Next up: applying these skills on personal and macro levels.
• ⏳ Next Steps in Leadership: The journey continues with strategies to activate change leadership skills personally, beginning with mastering time management.

Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.

Bitcoin Soars, Gensler Resigns, Inflation Hits Poor Hardest...Big Layoffs in Nov?

Leading indicators continued to decline in October and The Fed signals that it may not cut rates as steadily as previously thought. November may be an ugly layoff month for Boeing and more. See total 2024 layoffs as of Oct here.

The Economist shares Data suggesting immigrant voters helped Donald Trump win. NYT uncovers the role that recruiting agencies have played in helping undocumented workers find jobs - a troubling example of employers using these firms to relieve themselves of the responsibility to properly vet workers.

A related point, as Democrats mull what went wrong: Poorer consumers can be disproportionately impacted by inflation, when the lowest priced goods have the steepest increases. This seems to have been the case in the 2021-2024 inflation cycle per findings in this June 2024 NBER paper by Alberto Cavallo and Oliksiy Kryvtsov (PDF). For more election surprise analysis see S3T Premium Content Leadership Briefings Below.

The economics connected to the dollar vs the economics connected to the non-inflationary assets continue to show a sharp concerning contrast (see graphic below). The price of a home in Bitcoin has gone from 664 BTC to 6.6 BTC as of May 2024 and now be closer to 4 Bitcoin given current Bitcoin prices of around 100K.

Healthcare change on the way

AMA, healthcare industry are wary of the Trump administration's ideas for Medicare billing overhaul. AJMC: US Healthcare ranks lowest among high income nations.

The new administrations apparent bent toward deregulation combined with non-conventional cabinet pickets suggests extreme volatility may be in store for at least portions of the US healthcare system.

🔒S3T Premium Content: Leadership Briefings

• S3T Perspectives on why 2020's Inflation is different
• A Proposal for Correcting Flawed Inflation Tracking

Don't forget to check in with the S3T Economic Dashboard for the Top 500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators, plus latest significant developments and updated outlook.

AI Legal tests:

Can Generative AI products be sued for defamation?

In January 2024 OpenAI filed a motion to dismiss based on the notion that the user knew the AI output was false. The judge refused to dismiss the case. As of Nov 2024 OpenAI was still seeking resolution on the matter.

What are AI Legal Hold & Data Retention Requirements?

The New York Times copyright lawsuit case has taken a new twist, with the Times alleging that OpenAI engineers deleted data pertinent to the the NYT's case. AI model training can generate enormous amounts of data. This data must be retained for 3 reasons:

• It is critical for the explainability that ethical AI governance requires
• It constitutes management evidence for audits
• It will serve as legal evidence to support or refute claims in legal cases or criminal investigations.

Organizations investing in AI capabilities must consider the cost of retaining large amounts of data in anticipation of future audits and legal requirements. The economics of this will likely make it difficult for smaller players to participate, and force a new set of relationships between smaller more nimble AI innovators connecting to larger players that can afford to the compliance & security costs of very large collections of data.

Financial Innovation Watch

Sea change + bull market territory in crypto

Bitcoin nears 100K as SEC Chair Gary Gensler says he'll resign on Inauguration Day in January. Crypto industry leaders all want to join the Trump administration's "crypto advisory council."

Beginning of new cycle for FinTech?

"Fintech is in the bargain bin" says CBInsights noting opportunities for strategic buyers. What to watch: Will FinTech be taken over / made over by crypto? With Gensler is leaving the SEC, and the anticipation of regulatory clarity and bull market growth, will FinTech get a new life infused with stable coins, DeFi patterns and token economies?

Other Notables This Week:

ChatGPT in the classroom: OpenAI releases a free online course to help teachers use ChatGPT to aid learning in the classroom

Mobility Innovation: A Morphing Wheel that changes in real time may be able to let wheelchairs climb stairs. The breakthrough is under development at the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials (KIMM).

This week we are doing a review of the Change Leadership Series lessons we've been going through for the past 6 Weeks. If you've been working your way through the lessons each week, Congratulations 🎉 You've completed the 101 Series!

Here is a quick recap.

Change Leadership 101: Basics & Mindset

Basics: What & Why

• Why Change Leadership is the most important skill of the 21st Century - change leadership is a set of skills that traditionally has been thought of (and taught) as separate disciplines. Learning and leveraging these skills together is the only way to successfully meet the challenges of the 21st century.
• Defining Change Leadership - Change leadership is a way of seeing, working, mobilizing and navigating. In this lesson we learn how change leadership skills enable these new ways of driving intentional beneficial change. 

Once we've established these basics, we then look at the 4 elements of the Change Leadership mindset.

Change Leadership Mindset

The path of Change Leadership - being a purpose driven leader of beneficial change - is not any easy one. It requires resilience that comes from the 4 elements of the Change Leadership mindset.

• Change Leadership mindset: contentment - Counterintuitive reasons why contentment is key to success.
• Change Leadership mindset: the open palm - Driving change incurs risk; learning when to persist vs when to pivot, and being able to pivot gracefully from one chapter to the next. All reasons for learning how to "hold the things of this world in an open palm."
• Change Leadership mindset: life as a tapestry - Embracing the multi-threaded nature of life is especially vital for change leaders who must often juggle responsibilities for today's operations, while designing and building the capabilities of tomorrow. 
• The abundant mindset vs the scarcity mindset: Scarcity always loses, and makes everyone else lose too. An abundance mindset enables more effective solutions to the complex challenges of the 21st century.

Together these 4 elements give Change Leaders a very different lens and outlook.

Congratulations! You've taken a bold step into your new identity as a Change Leader, a purpose-driven champion of beneficial change. You've embraced a mindset that transforms challenges into opportunities.

• With contentment, you now understand the surprising strength that comes from being grounded and at peace.
• With the open palm, you've unlocked the wisdom to persist or pivot gracefully.
• You see life as a tapestry, balancing the present and future with vision and agility.
• And with an abundant mindset, your eyes are open to new possibilities where others only see limitations, and this lets you unleash empowering solutions that uplift everyone.

You've leveled up—celebrate this milestone and your incredible journey ahead!

You are now ready to move on to Change Leadership 201!

Change Leadership 201: Learning and applying change leadership skills on personal, organizational and macro levels

It's useful to think of change leadership as a set of skills that need to be activated on 3 levels: Personal, Organizational, and Macro. As you move to larger contexts, the challenges increase.

We're going to start with the Personal Level - how to Activate Change Leadership skills in your own individual life, and how to help other individuals do the same.

The first and most powerful step is - learning how to make time. Click the link below to get dive in!

🕐 Activating Change Leadership on a Personal Level: Making time 

Leading change takes extra time - here's a proven way to maximize what you can do with your available time.

Stay ahead of the curve with S3T. 🌎 Empowering change leaders to bring intentional beneficial change.

Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.