💘Feb 14 - Why love & investing always go together

What's the safest investment in an inflation wracked economy and AI crazed market? You! Invest in yourself—you're more inflation-proof and more bubble-pop-proof than the Magnificent 7.

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📌 In this Issue

1️⃣ 💘 Love & Investing Go Hand in Hand

• Love naturally involves investment—whether in relationships, kids, customers, or startups.
• Investing in ourselves is just as important but often overlooked due to self-doubt and hesitation.

2️⃣ 🚀 Overcoming the Fear of Self-Investment

• We hesitate due to questions like “Am I ready?” or “Is this just an indulgence?”
• Shifting focus to empowering questions (e.g., “How will this investment expand my opportunities?”) helps break the cycle.

3️⃣ ⏳ The Best Time to Invest in Yourself is Now

• Delaying self-investment means delaying growth.
• Rule of thumb: Start as early as possible. If you haven't started, now is better than later.

4️⃣ 📉 The Flawed Economic Measures Behind Affordability Issues

• Official U.S. unemployment figures understate the real situation (23.7% functionally unemployed).
• Inflation is severely underestimated—true cost of living rises faster than reported CPI numbers.

5️⃣ 🤖 AI Hype vs. Reality in Business

• 75% of executives say AI delivers minimal value.
• Many CIOs are hesitant to experiment with GenAI due to reliability concerns.
• There’s massive investment in AI, but actual business impact remains limited.

[perspective]

💘Love and investing always go together

The perfect topic for Valentines week and beyond

If you love someone, you invest in your relationship with them. If you love your kids, you invest in their education, well-being and future success. If we love our customers, we will invest diligently in creating better products and services for them. If we love the mission of a startup, we invest in bringing it to fruition.

Over and over, we see the connection: love and investing go hand in hand...If you love - well - anything, you invest your time, attention, energy and resources in it.

On Valentine’s Day, we celebrate love. What if we also learned to love investing in ourselves?

Many people find it hard to think clearly about investing in themselves

We're quick to invest in other people or companies. But when it comes to investing in ourselves, clarity fades.

Our minds start spinning with questions:

• Am I really ready? Is now the right time?
• What if I don’t follow through? Will I just be wasting money?
• Is this just an indulgence? How do I know the difference?
• Do I even deserve this? Shouldn’t I prove myself first?

We hesitate, we overthink, we second-guess—why is investing in ourselves so hard?

Let’s unpack that.

The risk of waiting vs starting

When we think about investing in ourselves, our minds often get stuck on the wrong questions—the ones rooted in doubt and hesitation.  These thoughts create a cycle of indecision, making self-investment feel like a risky bet instead of a necessary step. The net result is investment in ourselves gets pushed further out into the future.

How do we break out of this cycle and start investing in ourselves? Here are 4 recognitions that will help:

1. Recognize what's at the root of your hesitation to invest in yourself: Investments are forms of sacrifice. I sacrifice something now, in order to gain a bigger return later. Sometimes when the investment - the sacrificing - is aimed at ourselves, we get tripped up. Should I be sacrificing (spending money, time, energy) on myself? The answer is Yes, you should. It will bring dividends not only to you and your future, but to many others - more than you will ever know.
2. Recognize what you are building upon: Others have sacrificed for you and invested in you - your parents, teachers, relatives, friends, co-workers, etc. By choosing to invest in yourself you are building on, and extending the value of their investment.
3. Recognize the big pattern that you are part of: Life is a collection of opportunities to love and to invest. If we all are continuously investing in ourselves and investing in each other, this takes us toward a pretty healthy wealthy world. If we don't love and invest, we go the opposite direction. If you choose not to invest in yourself, you’re also limiting your ability to invest in others. Over time, without renewal and growth, your capacity to give will diminish. Prioritizing your own development isn’t selfish—it’s what allows you to continue making a meaningful impact on those around you.
4. Recognize what questions really matter: Instead of focusing on fear based questions and dilemmas, shift your focus to empowering questions: “What kind of future am I building for myself?” “How will this investment expand my opportunities?” “What skills and insights will help me create the life I want?” “What’s the cost of staying where I am?” 

When we recognize these points, it helps us move out of hesitation to a mindset of "Ok how and when can I get started?"

When is the right time to start investing in yourself?

💡 Answer: It’s not about feeling “ready”—it’s about starting anyway.

The 2 rules of thumb about investing:

1. Start as early as possible.
2. If you haven't started already, right now is better than any future time.

These 2 rules both hold true for investing in yourself.

Your learning and growth aren’t luxuries; they’re necessities. The returns you’ll see from building knowledge, skills, and confidence will far exceed the cost of the investment.

Let’s commit: invest in ourselves

The truth is, growth isn’t something you wait to feel ready for—it’s something you step into. Investing in yourself isn’t about proving your worth first; it’s about recognizing that your growth is the proof. And remembering: my growth enables more benefits for me yes but also for others.

When you choose to invest in yourself with clarity and confidence, you stop second-guessing and start building a future where you don’t just adapt to change—you lead it.

💬 Want to continue the conversation? DM me on LinkedIn!

[macro-economics]

More details on the flawed economic measures driving America's affordability crisis

Full Access Members: See the S3T Economic Dashboard for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.

This week's economic data indicated inflation is rising, with the Fed's preferred inflation measure back in 3% territory again. (As noted frequently in S3T this preferred measure is not accurate.)

More data emerged this week detailing the inaccuracy of current US economic measures. In "Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong" Eugene Ludwig explains some of the problems with the way the Federal Government tracks the economy.

For example, if unemployment is 4.2%, we likely assume "4.2% are having a hard time right now, and the rest are doing fine." But did you know that federal measures count homeless people doing occasional work as "employed"??? If you factored in occasional homeless workers, plus workers who can only find part time work, and workers who make a poverty wage, the unemployment rate would be 23.7%.

"nearly one of every four workers is functionally unemployed in America today" - Eugene Ludwig

While unemployment metrics include everyone even occasional homeless workers, the median wage statistic - ironically - takes the opposite approach: counting only full time workers. This causes median wage to be overstated by 16%.

So, 23% unemployment and overstated wages. It gets worse.

The Consumer Price Index (tracks prices of 80,000 consumer products) likewise has uncorrected flaws that generate very misleading figures about inflation.

Let's break it down:

If every American bought every one of the 80K products every month, then the current CPI measurement would be a decent gauge of inflation. But not every American buys every product at the same interval. As a result, CPI is NOT a reliable indicator of the financial experience of American individuals and families.

• Lower income individuals buy fewer products overall, and tend to buy products that are more exposed to inflationary pressures.
• In addition, products themselves are purchased in different intervals and make up different percentages of a household budget: The price of TVs has dropped sharply over the past decade. But that doesn't offset the fact that the price of healthcare has risen sharply – and that we buy a TV once every 2 years or so, but must pay for healthcare every month.

"In 2023 alone, the CPI indicated that inflation had driven prices up by 4.1 percent. But the true cost of living, as measured by our research, rose more than twice as much — a full 9.4 percent." - Eugene Ludwig

This has been a common theme in the S3T newsletter and learning platform. Here are a few explainers:

• Understanding the Challenges to Affordability: Headline Inflation vs. Perennial Inflation
• Flawed inflation tracking and how to correct it
• Background: 🔭 S3T Perspectives on 2020's Inflation

Where to start

There is a lot of activity right now focused on government efficiency, and one hopes it somehow all sorts out for the benefit of individuals and families (personally, plagued with doubts).

If the purpose of government is to secure a positive citizen experience in a nation, it would make sense to start by focusing on the economic experience of citizens - by fixing our economic measures so they do a better job of telling us what that citizen experience is actually like. From there we could make adjustments to government programs and a variety of other factors - tax policy for one - and gradually engineer a better experience for Americans.

[emerging tech]

75% of Execs say AI delivers minimal value

Amid reliability concerns, only 61% of CIOs at WSJ Summit are willing to experiment w GenAI, 21% say they are doing nothing with it.

This Slashdot thread shares word-on-the-street concerns. One excerpt:

"Three-quarters of the polled executives said AI currently delivers minimal value for their investments." - Slashdot

This has been a continuation of a less reported on theme from 2024: massive hype and investment on the AI supply chain side, but limited value stories on the delivery side. The CBInsights chart (my cartoon bubbles added) gives a flavor of the situation - the largest and most well capitalized portion of the market - engorged with trillions of investment dollars, is trying to sell something to the much smaller players (here focused on tech sector only, but this dynamic seems to apply across the board).

Also notable: Impact of Tariffs - The Trade War in 9 Charts

[change leadership learning series]

If you've been following along and learning each week, congratulations! You are now starting the Change Leadership 301 Level which focuses on Special Challenges that arise in the course of leading change.

This week's lesson: How to overcome the bias toward short-term thinking and inspire effective forward-thinking

So many influences and day to day urgencies push us toward short-term thinking at the expense of our future effectiveness and impact. So how can leaders cultivate a culture that acknowledges the importance of the future and helps employees at all levels realize their responsibility to actively engage in shaping it?

In this segment you will learn how to address the 3 most costly misperceptions about future planning and leverage 8 powerful habits for creating a proactive culture in your organization.

Click here for an overview of the full Change Leadership Learning Series.

Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.